DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091231
SWODY1
SPC AC 091229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TX...

..TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WEST TX
THIS EVENING...PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH AREA HAS SEEN SEVERAL DAYS OF CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING...ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
LIKELY TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR WEST
TX...IN REGION OF STRONGEST LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
PECOS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TX. DESPITE RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND PROMOTE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHWEST TX...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS LRD THIS
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..MI...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF LOWER MI. THESE STORMS ARE AHEAD OF COMPACT UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING ACROSS REGION. MUCAPE VALUES OVER THIS AREA ARE FORECAST
TO BE RATHER WEAK /BELOW 500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES AND POCKET OF COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK
OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

..AR/LA...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND
NORTHERN LA...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG ARE FORECAST IN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT /GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
KNOTS BELOW 200MB/. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL MAY OCCUR...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.HART/JEWELL.. 05/09/2007

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