SWODY1
SPC AC 081559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN
OK...
UPPER TROUGH FROM CO TO AZ CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MDT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SWRN
TX INTO OK. MOISTURE OVERNIGHT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WWD ACROSS SRN
NM AND FAR W TX AND MAINTAINED ACTIVE STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SCENTRAL OK
WSWWD TO JUST S OF MAF.
THE UPSLOPE E/SELYS CONTINUING SWRN TX AND MORE NELY ON N SIDE OF
BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN NM INTO NWRN TX...WILL MAINTAIN BOTH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THRU TONIGHT.
HEATING TO THE S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DESTABILIZE AIRMASS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TX. THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE NCENTRAL/NERN TX
IN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG. MLCAPES SWRN
TX EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
BY MID AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGION OF
SWRN TX/SERN NM. 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SWRN TX SUPPORTS
SUPERCELL STORMS. WHILE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST A COUPLE TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER E ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK...WHILE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
IS GREATER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER. WITH HEATING SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME COMMON VICINITY AND E OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL LEAD TO
MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS.
.HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/08/2007
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