SWODY1
SPC AC 081218
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN
OK...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT WESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS TX TODAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
SOUTHWEST TX/NM...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM
THE ELP AREA INTO OK. THESE STORMS HAVE REINFORCED THE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
..SOUTHEAST NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL/UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS AIDING
LIFT...WHILE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A HARD
TIME MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS OVER WEST TX LATER TODAY.
..CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...
CONVECTIVE REINFORCED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ABI
INTO SOUTHWEST OK. VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
RESIDES EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SOME DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO
LIKELY TODAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGEST OVER OK/NORTH TX...AND WEAKENS WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. A FEW STORMS IN THIS ZONE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.
..LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF IL SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MO/AR/LA
AND NORTHEAST TX. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK. HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH STRONGER CELLS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
.HART/GRAMS.. 05/08/2007
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