DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091628
SWODY1
SPC AC 091626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL TX...

..SWRN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
TROUGH OVER NM CONTINUES ITS SLOW EWD MOVEMENT TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
TX BY 12Z THU. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN TX THIS MORNING. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HEATING WILL BE SLOW THIS AREA. HOWEVER BY
MID AFTERNOON AIR MASS WILL LOCALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH SOME HEATING
ALLOWING MLCAPES TO CLIMB AT BEST TO 1000 J/KG. WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK THE 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTS STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY THE HILL COUNTRY OF SWRN
TX. PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
WET DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS THESE STORMS
DEVELOP E/SEWD.

..ERN OR/CENTRAL ID...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM E OF DIVIDE IN NRN MT SWWD ACROSS NRN ORE
TO COAST WILL BECOME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FROM ID WWD THIS
AFTERNOON. S OF FRONT STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE FROM CASCADES
EWD INTO CENTRAL ID. COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR .7
INCHES...EXPECT WITH HEATING MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO NEAR 500 J/KG.
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE HIGH BASES
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURSTS WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MI...
CLOUDS AND PCPN NOTED ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AM...SHOULD DECREASE
SUFFICIENTLY BY AFTERNOON FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING. WITH APPROACH OF
A RATHER COMPACT UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACCOMPANIED BY MID LEVEL COLD
POCKET...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
LOWER MI. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ANY SEVERE
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS.

..SERN COAST...
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA OFF GA COAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPINNING
BANDS OF CONVECTION ONSHORE PRIMARILY COASTAL SC. WILL INTRODUCE A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR.
INSTABILITY HOWEVER WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 MLCAPE.

.HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/09/2007

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