SWODY2
SPC AC 070608
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...SRN ROCKIES AND OZARK PLATEAU...
..SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES/OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS
WEST TX AND WRN OK. ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN 60S F TO NEAR 70 F SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST TX AND WCNTRL OK. OTHER STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM NEAR THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TX...ERN OK AND AR. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD BE PREFERRED
LOCATIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MCS
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST BY THE NAM/GFS/NAMKF SOLUTIONS TO
BE LOCATED ACROSS FAR WEST TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE
TRANSPECOS REGION NWD ONTO THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX. IF AN MCS
DEVELOPS IN THIS REGION...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST IN THIS AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW ATTM. A
FEW HAILSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NM MAINLY DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH
TX...ERN OK AND WRN AR...FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR
SUPERCELLS...SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING AND IN AREAS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED.
.BROYLES.. 05/07/2007
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