SWODY2
SPC AC 141720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
..SYNOPIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
..IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD BASED TROUGH
FROM THE NRN/MID VS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IN/MO INTO NWRN AR/NRN TX BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..ERN GREAT LAKES/WRN NY SWWD THROUGH THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
AS IT SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY AS
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...FROM THE
PLAINS STATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS SUGGEST LINE
SEGMENTS/BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD EVOLVE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS AR/MO...THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 20 KT...BUT MLCAPES UP TO 2500
J/KG INDICATE A THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 03-05Z.
..ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS INDICATE AS SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... MOVES
EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON DEGREE ON INSTABILITY ...THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND
700 MB. THIS WARMING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD PRECLUDE MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
..ERN NM/WRN TX...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN
NM INTO FAR WEST TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSES RATE AND A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 700 MB. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
..SRN FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...CONTINUED DEEP ELY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS TO MOVE WWD THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OCCUR.
.IMY.. 05/14/2007
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