Tuesday, May 8, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080659
SWODY2
SPC AC 080657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND OZARK PLATEAU...

CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINE IN ERN ID AND MT

..SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE EWD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS OK EXTENDING SWWD INTO
WEST TX. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F
SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL TX...NE TX AND SE OK
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS
LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
ESPECIALLY WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STEEP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST NEAR PEAK
HEATING WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

..MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
FURTHER NEWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND
LOWER OH VALLEY...INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE
THREAT THAT DEVELOPS MARGINAL AND CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK HEATING.

.BROYLES.. 05/08/2007

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