SWODY2
SPC AC 301731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2007
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL
REMAIN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE DAKOTAS -- ROUGHLY BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW...AND WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN WITH TIME. THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT -- LIKELY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD -- SHOULD WEAKEN/WASH OUT WITH TIME...WHILE A SECOND
SURGE OF COOLER AIR SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS SECOND FRONT -- AND
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING THROUGH THE
EVENING -- SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION INVOF WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT...AND PERHAPS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN REGION OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION.
BELT OF MODERATELY-STRONG WLYS ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND AS FAR S AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN OK...ABOVE SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON S OF SECOND FRONTAL SURGE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY FUEL NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS AND NEWD INTO NEB/IA
-- ON SERN FRINGES OF STATIONARY UPPER LOW. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR IN
PLACE...STORMS SHOULD BECOME SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR -- ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE MOST FAVORABLE
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS FORECAST. THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS TX/OK AND INTO KS
THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INCREASE/SPREAD
SEWD ACROSS KS AND INTO OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THREAT
-- POSSIBLY WITH AN ORGANIZING MCS -- MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...TRAILING COLD FRONT
-- FORECAST TO EXTEND WWD/NWWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY -- MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EWD THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER RIDGE.
STRONGER/NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF
THE SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH SOME THREAT FOR ORGANIZED/LOCALLY-SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE FRONT ON THE FRINGES OF THIS STRONGER
UPPER FLOW. WILL ALSO INCLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS NY/PA
AND SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OF WV/WRN VA...WHERE PULSE-TYPE
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR WITHIN DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON BOUNDARY
LAYER.
.GOSS.. 05/30/2007
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