SWODY3
SPC AC 080729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 08 2007
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
..LOWER MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
OZARK PLATEAU REGION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SFC HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW INSUFFICIENT SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
DEVELOP NEAR MAXIMUMS IN INSTABILITY. ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.
..NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND CNTRL ROCKIES WITH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES. THE NAM/GFS AND NAMKF SOLUTIONS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL FORECASTS ALSO BRING A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES
CONCERNING INSTABILITY...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
REGION WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
.BROYLES.. 05/08/2007
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