SWOD48
SPC AC 030851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH WRN U.S.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 /SUN AND MON/...BUT
DIFFER BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AS IT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NNEWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF THE SRN/
CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS DURING DAY 4 /SUN
MAY 6TH/ ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH THIS THREAT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
INTO DAY 5 /MON MAY 7TH/...BUT MAINLY ACROSS W TX.
BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION OF A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS.
.PETERS.. 05/03/2007
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