Friday, May 11, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110830
SWOD48
SPC AC 110830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY4/MAY 14/...

..DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS
TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION
BEFORE DIGGING ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY4 PERIOD. SHEAR PROFILES DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THIS
LATITUDE...THOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING THROUGH THE PROFILE. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED SEVERE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY AS FAR SW AS KS DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. BEYOND
DAY4...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ISSUES WILL
PROVE A BIT TOO UNPREDICTABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

.DARROW.. 05/11/2007

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