Tuesday, May 15, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150839
SWOD48
SPC AC 150839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
DAY5...SATURDAY...THEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LATEST DATA FROM THE ECMWF IS
NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION BY 22/12Z. GFS ALLOWS UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH STRONGEST FLOW SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
ND INTO ONTARIO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY BEYOND
DAY5 WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.DARROW.. 05/15/2007

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