SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040257
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 221...224...
VALID 040257Z - 040430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 221...224...CONTINUES.
..MAIN SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CO AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BOWING
SEGMENT...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF BOWING
SEGMENT EXTENDS FROM 40 W AKO TO 20 S AIA. NRN PORTION OF THIS LINE
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 51 KT WIND GUSTS OBSERVED AT BFF WITHIN THE PAST
2 HOURS AND SOME HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT AS GREAT
FOR THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE...WHICH IS AFFECTING SWRN SD ATTM.
HOWEVER...RECENT WIND GUSTS TO 38KT AT CUT SUGGEST ISOLD WIND DAMAGE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB DID NOT BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS IT COULD
HAVE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN WHICH LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...RECENT MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS ERN CO RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG AND THIS AGREES WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE NOTED
ON 00Z DENVER SOUNDING. TORNADO THREAT STILL PERSISTS ACROSS NE
CO...PARTICULARLY FOR MORGAN/WASHINGTON/LOGAN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 35 KT SELY LOW LEVEL JET UNDERNEATH
40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW.
.TAYLOR.. 05/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
38720193 38590448 40850402 41860331 41850204
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