SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040437
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS AND ERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 225...
VALID 040437Z - 040600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 225 CONTINUES.
STRONG-SEVERE LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS SRN MS
AND ERN LA LATE THIS EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LINE REACHING
THE AL BORDER FROM CHOCTAW COUNTY SWD TO MOBILE BAY BETWEEN 07-09Z.
A WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM LATER.
LATEST VWP FROM KLIX EXHIBITS MODEST TURNING IN THE LOWEST FEW KM
WITH 0-1KM SRH OVER 200 M2/S2. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY GIVEN PLUME OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SITUATED ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND ERN LA. STORM MODE...HOWEVER...HAS
BEEN DECIDEDLY LINEAR THUS FAR THIS EVENING. BUT...THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE HIGHER WITH CELLS THAT DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE OR ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED.
AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS SWRN AL IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER W. THIS MAKES THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SVR
RISK UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORM INTENSITY/MODE
ACROSS ERN LA AND SCNTRL MS. DECISION ON A WW DOWNSTREAM WILL BE
MADE BEFORE 06-07Z AND AFTER VIEWING THE ANTICIPATED 06Z KLIX RAOB.
.RACY.. 05/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
29389204 30869154 31869052 31808809 30828818 29048918
28899088
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