SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041635
LAZ000-MSZ000-041800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 041635Z - 041800Z
WEAKENING SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. BUT...LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE...AND AHEAD OF BUILDING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
BATON ROUGE INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. THIS IS
OCCURRING ABOVE REMNANT WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS/WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
DESPITE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES...RUC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR CONTINUING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ONGOING
STORMS TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY 20-21Z...WHILE NEW STORMS
CONTINUE TO FORM UPSTREAM...NEAR/NORTH OF LAFAYETTE...POSSIBLY
TOWARD FORT POLK.
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
SOME...BUT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS. AND...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 700
MB COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN
CORES TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED BY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS IN EXCESS OF
1.75 INCHES...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TORRENTIAL DOWN
POURS AND SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
.KERR.. 05/04/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
31399314 31489229 31009111 30759040 30488975 30038932
29268917 29109036 29479203 29979295 30549330 31009345
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