SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070659
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT MON MAY 07 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...KS...OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 250...
VALID 070659Z - 070830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 250 CONTINUES.
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN WATCH 250
ATTM APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NERN OK/SERN KS BORDER AREAS WHERE
MESOLOW WAS MOVING EWD INTO NWRN OSAGE COUNTY OK. THIS FEATURE
APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG INSTABILITY AND POTENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATCH...ANOTHER LONG NIGHT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF ERN KS AS INTENSE CONVECTION...FUELED
BY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX...MOVES NWD ACROSS THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SERN KS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
AS UPDRAFTS BECOME DECOUPLED AFTER CROSSING NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...SUBSTANTIAL DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE FROM WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT. AIR MASS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TEND TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS MO AND
PARTS OF THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY BE DROPPED PRIOR
TO EXPIRATION AT 08Z.
.CARBIN.. 05/07/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
34639573 34419617 34539678 34989720 36499683 37119680
38129618 38749526 38919503 39599542 40039443 40129381
39959337 39409316 39219353 38219359 38219401 34969526
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