SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091838
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-092045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI...FAR NRN IND AND
NWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091838Z - 092045Z
ISOLATED MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SFC LOW IN NERN IND...WITH AN
OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATED OVER ECENTRAL WI CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW. ALTHOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED PORTIONS OF SERN
MI...ENOUGH CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
/500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR NRN IND AND FAR
SWRN/SERN LOWER MI. MODERATE MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS /40 KTS NOTED ON
THE GRR AND DTX VWP DATA/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ROTATION
AND A MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION... DESPITE WEAKER
MID LEVEL WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR...MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OVER ECENTRAL
WI ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OVER ECENTRAL/SERN WI AND
CENTRAL MI ALONG WITH SFC CONVERGENCE INVOF INVERTED TROUGH AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINAL SVR HAIL.
.CROSBIE.. 05/09/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...
41268481 41578348 42128313 42318306 43108462 43918626
45048815 44128909 43228892 42168731 41458650
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment