Friday, May 11, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0775

ACUS11 KWNS 112049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112049
SDZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112049Z - 112145Z

WRN AND SWRN SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS CAN INITIATE...STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A SUPERCELL OR TWO
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...A WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NERN WY SEWD THROUGH SWRN SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. SURFACE HEATING IS
RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY N OF FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
RESULTED IN MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
TOWERING CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ON THE LARGER SCALE...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS SD
ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE... AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

.DIAL.. 05/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

43240230 43750369 44400388 44210251 43740170

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