MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789

ACUS11 KWNS 141602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141601
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-141700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UP OF MI...FAR NE MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141601Z - 141700Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI...FAR NE MN AND THE
UP OF MI LATE THIS MORNING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LATE
THIS MORNING BUT MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW
SHOULD BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW ABOUT 80 MILES EAST
OF FARGO ND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR DULUTH AND INTO
THE WRN UP OF MI. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE FROM WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ARE LIKELY HELPING THE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED. IN
ADDITION...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OVER MN WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS STORM
COVERAGE EXPANDS...A HAIL THREAT COULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EVIDENT
ON RUC ANALYSIS SHOULD INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE WRN
PART OF THE MCD AREA AND THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY
MID-AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

46358532 46298809 46399081 46409235 46719238 47199238
47278839 47108550

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