SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141627
FLZ000-141800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141627Z - 141800Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN FL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER....THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND ACCORDING TO WSR-88D...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ERN COAST OF FL. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL SHOULD SFC-BASED
CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT AS
SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM IN
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHICH MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS
WITH PULSE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACHING -12 C ON 12Z SOUNDINGS.
.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
24998054 25128125 26708160 27668172 28148134 27768067
26758038 25978026
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment