SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141836
LAZ000-TXZ000-142000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141836Z - 142000Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LA AND SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING NNWWD INTO EAST TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH LOWER 70 F DEWPOINTS LOCATED ACROSS
SE LA. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS SRN LA AND FAR SE TX AND THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE 12Z LAKE CHARLES
SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB
SUGGESTING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. ALSO...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5
C/KM IN MUCH OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29289031 29389275 30219522 30919603 31629556 31219431
30629266 30229039
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