SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151630
ARZ000-MOZ000-151800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...NW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151630Z - 151800Z
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SW
MO AND NW AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IA
SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL MO INTO NE OK. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STEEPEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SPRINGFIELD AREA
WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 8.0 C/K. IN ADDITION...THE
12Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING HAS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 500
MB TEMPS AROUND -14C. THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DECREASE SWD ACROSS SW MO INTO NE
AR. FOR THIS REASON...STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
35479170 35149332 35759439 36509450 37179432 37689358
37719207 36749123
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