SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151715
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-151845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...FAR ERN IL...NW IND.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151715Z - 151845Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER MI...NW IND AND FAR ERN
IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LOWER MI
INTO SE WI AND FAR ERN IA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY PRESENT. SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI
AND NW IND RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A GROWING BAND OF CUMULUS IS EVIDENT IN THIS
AREA ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT THAT
STRONG...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MCD AREA. IN ADDITION...A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE
DETROIT MI 12Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT THAT STRONG ATTM...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW IND AND LOWER MI. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.
.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
38728744 38788866 39898846 40378822 41618718 43668354
42658265 41428488 40258637
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