SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182247
SDZ000-NDZ000-190015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182247Z - 190015Z
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST THIS EVENING. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM HETTINGER AND GRANT COUNTIES ND SWWD INTO HARDING AND PERKINS
COUNTIES SD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 F WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9.5 C/KM. DESPITE MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...THESE LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT S
OF WW 279 APPEARS TO BE THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN AFTER 03-04Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES.
.MEAD.. 05/18/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
45840286 46270267 46630241 46790191 46750133 46500081
46170049 45790034 45410036 44960089 44690154 44590225
44590274 44680332 44890354
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