SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192001
TXZ000-192100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192001Z - 192100Z
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WRN TX WITH THE MAIN THREAT
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING CONTINUES OVER SWRN TX WITH DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...IS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VECTOR MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A COUPLE LONG LIVED SEVERE CELLS...POSSIBLY WITH SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR AS OF 20Z ALREADY SHOWED SEVERE CELLS JUST
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE W OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. MEAN SELY STORM MOTIONS
COULD KEEP THESE STORMS W OF THE BORDER...HOWEVER...ONLY SLIGHT EWD
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE U.S. OTHER
CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS.
.JEWELL.. 05/19/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...
31210591 31440593 31900479 31940355 31700338 30660285
29690261 28830314 29740465 30260481 30580497 31030571
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