Saturday, May 19, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0837

ACUS11 KWNS 192103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192102
NEZ000-192330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192102Z - 192330Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH THE MAIN THREAT
SEVERE HAIL. STRONG WINDS GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
OUTFLOW POOL GROWS AND STORMS PROPAGATE SW.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NRN NEB. STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK.
OBSERVED AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE MOST LIKELY STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SLOWLY IN A SWLY DIRECTION. A FEW LONGER LIVED MULTICELLULAR
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. RELATIVELY WARM/DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO ENHANCE EVAPORATION WITH LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL.

.JEWELL.. 05/19/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS...

42070238 42550091 42709917 42499909 42209922 41639975
41010102 41090209 41310250 41490277 41760273

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