Sunday, May 20, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

ACUS11 KWNS 201936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201935
TXZ000-NMZ000-202200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM INTO FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201935Z - 202200Z

STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SOME CELLS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE FOR STORMS WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE AND WEAK STORM
RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INITIATION
OF STORMS ON HIGH TERRAIN...HAIL DIAMETERS OF 1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTNS SWD INTO WRN
TX WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS
ARE E TO SE AT 10-15 KTS.

.JEWELL.. 05/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

33700743 34840699 34850594 34860494 34440413 32300370
31390326 30360251 29780254 29710321 30600432 30670496
31570625 33020743

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