SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210048
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-210215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY THROUGH SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...
VALID 210048Z - 210215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
CONTINUES.
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SERN MT AND INTO NERN WY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SD THROUGH NERN WY AND INTO
S CNTRL MT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS W CNTRL MT FROM JUST
WEST OF HAVRE SWD TO JUST EAST OF LIVINGSTON. DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AXIS OF MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KT FROM
NE WY THROUGH SE MT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM S CNTRL THROUGH SERN
MT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS
WITH BOW ECHOES AS THEY MOVE EWD. THE STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ENHANCE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND
FORWARD PROPAGATION. OTHER STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG E-W BOUNDARY
ACROSS NERN WY MAY POST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
AS THEY LIFT NEWD THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS.
.DIAL.. 05/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
43960293 44180441 44100582 45140714 45870837 46910834
47090544 44910293
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