MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0846

ACUS11 KWNS 211807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211807
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-211930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN SD...EXTREME SERN ND...WCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211807Z - 211930Z

TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ISOLD STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED QUICKLY NWD INTO
NRN MN AT 17Z WITH A RAPID MOISTENING AND WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKS/CNTRL-SRN MN. THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES IN THE 1000-1500
J/KG. ELEVATED TSTMS...ASSOCD WITH A WEAK MCV MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...WERE GROWING STRONGER AND LIKELY MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH
TIME. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THE SLY LLJ OVER ERN SD...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD AND THEN MOVE ENEWD TOWARD WCNTRL MN THROUGH
LATE AFTN. STRONGER STORMS WILL FAVOR SRN/ERN EDGES OF MORNING
CONVECTION AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL-WCNTRL MN.

VERTICAL SHEAR WAS RATHER ANEMIC WITH 0-6KM VALUES AOB 20 KTS. WITH
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS...TSTMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG UPDRAFT PULSES.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RATHER STEEP...SO DESPITE LACK OF
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.RACY.. 05/21/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

45619712 46329642 47159572 47059404 46069355 45459396
45289542 45379636

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.