SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211951
TXZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211951Z - 212115Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BETWEEN 20-21Z AND WILL POSE A THREAT OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS LIKELY BEFORE 21Z.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE
HEATING HAS ERODED CIN. MEANWHILE...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH NWD
EXTENT...BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY SRN AREAS. MOIST
AREA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MID LEVEL COOL
POCKET WILL FURTHER CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUCCESSFUL SEVERE
STORM FORMATION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL TRAVEL IN A SELY DIRECTION WITH A THREAT
OF 2.00+ INCH HAIL.
.JEWELL.. 05/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
29600276 30150413 30830384 31370364 31820316 31930192
31550054 30699982 30219984 29630127 29830191 29710276
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