SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212055
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-212200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS/OK AND TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212055Z - 212200Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE AROUND
SURFACE LOW ACROSS ERN CO BENEATH SMALL UPPER VORT MAX ALOFT. HIGH
BASED CU HAS DEVELOPED IN DEEPLY MIXED AIR W OF DRYLINE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS CAP ERODES FARTHER E INTO THE MOIST AIR.
ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AS SEEN ON REE SOUNDING
AND AMA/DDC VWPS...BUT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/VEERING PROFILES ARE
STRONG. THEREFORE...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED
HEATING...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HAIL
/MAX SIZES 1.00-1.75 IN/ AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
.JEWELL.. 05/21/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
35630246 38600171 38850078 38380003 37020002 35360068
35110114 35110197
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