SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221735
TXZ000-221930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221735Z - 221930Z
AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAINS OF SCENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LACK OF GREATER AREAL COVERAGE/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG
BOTH A N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENT AXIS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MIDDLE
TX COASTAL PLAINS INVOF MATAGORDA BAY. A MODIFIED 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATES LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH ACROSS THE AREA WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
INVOF OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE TROUGH INTERSECTION INVOF
MATAGORDA BAY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. 15-20 KTS BACKED
ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL AUGMENT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURE. THUS DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...MARGINAL SVR
HAIL/DMGG WINDS GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
27839696 27849742 28269773 28699783 29479758 29669744
29529675 28609600 28279617
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