MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

ACUS11 KWNS 221850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
KSZ000-COZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222115Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN COLORADO
FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WHILE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ECENTRAL/SERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
TSTMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT...BUT A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOWS MODERATE CU
ALONG MUCH OF THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED BETWEEN COS AND DEN...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED SWD OVER THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RECENT SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG AND ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD INTO NRN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY /BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND PUEBLO/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT 70/45 AT PUEBLO WOULD HAVE MINIMAL REMAINING CINH AND AROUND
500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 50
KTS/ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ANY ISOLATED SVR TSTM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO ECENTRAL/SERN CO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHER TSTMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WILL
ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN CO.

.CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39340449 39230480 38880485 38510462 38170444 37770420
37500368 37590231 38350198 39480197 39490227 39500276
39230370

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