SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241504
OKZ000-TXZ000-241700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL OK...NWRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 241504Z - 241700Z
PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
TRAILING PORTION OF EXTENSIVE LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO SETTLE SEWD
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE CLIMBING AMIDST MOIST AND
CAPPED AIR MASS. HEATING AND MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION AND SUSTAIN
TSTM ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL OK AND NRN TX. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...STORM SCALE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS /SUCH AS THOSE NOW OCCURRING ACROSS GARVIN AND
COTTON COUNTIES IN OK AND BAYLOR AND ARCHER COUNTIES IN NW TX/ WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL...AND GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED...UPDRAFT
ENHANCEMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS MAY INCREASE AS THESE INTERACTIONS OCCUR WITHIN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS TOO
LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH. HOWEVER...AS
INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS ACROSS PARTS OF TX LATER TODAY...AND STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASE...A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
.CARBIN.. 05/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
33349714 32579859 32390004 33409942 34709783 35079646
34799608 34159634
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