Thursday, May 24, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0881

ACUS11 KWNS 241752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241752
WIZ000-MIZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0881
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241752Z - 241945Z

PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...NOW FROM EXTREME SWRN WI ACROSS ERN
IA...HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO
LIMITED PRE-CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MIXING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO MODERATE WARM SECTOR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40KT.

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEWD FROM IA ACROSS MUCH OF WI THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...SPREADS NEWD.
LACK OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BE OFFSET BY DYNAMIC
LIFT AND ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SITUATION SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
INTENSE STORMS...IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...AT PRESENT...GIVEN LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE NATURE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD AND A WATCH IS NOT
IMMINENT.

IS STORM INTENSITY GRADUALLY INCREASES NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.

.CARBIN.. 05/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...

45599057 46289012 46098857 44918770 42728819 42709061
43719075

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