Friday, May 25, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0890

ACUS11 KWNS 252020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252020
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252020Z - 252115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM ERN CO
INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A RELATIVELY NARROW N-S AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
COINCIDENT WITH LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ON THE HIGH-PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
INITIATION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY BE SPURRED
BY LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST OVER CO. MODEST /30-40KT/ MID LEVEL
FLOW ATOP SLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER...AND SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD-LAYER...FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ALONG
THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITY APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH. HOWEVER...LIMITED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL WATCH.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39610057 39250156 39780226 40490261 41130233 41300143
41040094 40390052

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