MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920

ACUS11 KWNS 292234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292234
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN CO...NWRN
KS...SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 292234Z - 300130Z

ORGANIZED/MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST 2Z ACROSS SWATH FROM GRI AREA WSWWD ACROSS NWRN KS AND
E-CENTRAL CO...S THROUGH E OF LIC. RATES 2 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE
COMMON...WITH RATES 3-5 INCHES/HOUR LOCALLY OCCURRING IN HP
SUPERCELLS AND MERGING STORMS. 2.5 INCHES IN HALF AN HOUR ALREADY
HAS BEEN MEASURED AT SFC WITH DISCRETE/SLOW MOVING TSTM OVER NRN
YUMA COUNTY CO...AND SIMILAR/VERY LOCALIZED EVENTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN LARGER HEAVY PRECIP AREA AS IT CONSOLIDATES
EWD/ESEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.

AS OF 2215Z...LINE OF TSTMS IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM KEITH
COUNTY NEB SWWD ACROSS LIC/COS AREAS...AND WILL MOVE EWD INTO
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND 30-40 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ACROSS SWRN
NEB/NERN CO AND INTO NWRN KS. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SRN NEB IS ANALYZED NEAR
GRI...HDE...MCK...30 SW IML LINE...AND MAY DRIFT SWD IN SOME AREAS.
20-25 KT SELY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT FAVORABLY
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ATOP THIS BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG BOUNDARY AND TO ITS N.
EXPECT WESTERN CONVECTIVE BAND TO OVERTAKE AND MERGE WITH CONVECTION
N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAXIMIZING ADDITIONAL LIFT AND EXACERBATING
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GPS DATA...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGEST AROUND 1.25 INCH PW IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR MASS OVER MOST
OF REGION...EXPECIALLY FROM EXTREME ERN CO EWD ACROSS KS/NEB BORDER
AREA. 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE...STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND
FAVORABLE PROPAGATIONAL VECTORS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN EFFICIENT
PRECIP PRODUCTION.

FOR SVR THREAT REF WW 304 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

.EDWARDS.. 05/29/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38890473 39220365 39760299 40400239 41170167 41340024
41429882 40849861 39989921 39310074 38670221 38530380

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.