Wednesday, May 30, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0928

ACUS11 KWNS 301608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301607
LAZ000-TXZ000-301730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...

VALID 301607Z - 301730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310
CONTINUES.

SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NEAR 70F...BUT LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS REMAINS
RATHER STRONG...PARTICULARLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HOUSTON TO THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD
POOL...NOW ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE METROPLEX...REMAINS
STRONG...AND WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. AND...LARGE MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES...MAINTAINING
SURFACE COLD POOL.

WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF SUBTROPICAL UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SEEMS LIKELY TO PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
TEXAS AND THE SABINE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
AND...WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TO IMPEDE INSOLATION...
INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION OF COLD POOL MAY OCCUR BY
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WHICH COULD REACH UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS BY 20-21Z.

.KERR.. 05/30/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

33089489 33069415 32079358 30659330 29879379 29469480
29199576 29679681 30729709 31659705 32249685 32669645
32819584

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