SWODY1
SPC AC 031633
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
SE NM/SW TX INTO CENTRAL TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
ERN NM INTO WRN LA...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NC/SE
VA...
..E TX/WRN LA THIS AFTERNOON...
A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS IS MOVING ESEWD INTO E CENTRAL TX. AN MCV AND
40-50 KT WNWLY SPEED MAX IN THE MID LEVELS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMING QUICKLY INTO
THE 80S WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF THE MCS INTO
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..SE NM/SW TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING WSWWD AND WWD FROM THE ONGOING E TX MCS
IS EXPECTED TO STALL THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW INTO S CENTRAL TX.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE SRN STREAM /NOW APPROACHING EL PASO/
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS W/SW TX AND SE NM...WHERE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INITIALLY NEAR THE DAVIS AND SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING ESEWD INVOF THE MOIST AXIS
ALONG THE PECOS VALLEY.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG/ AND LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING
AND THEN MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BY LATER TONIGHT.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..NE NC/SE VA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD OVER
THE ERN CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL AREA WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS NE NC/SE VA THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE...WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.
..SE WI/NRN IL/NW INDIANA/SW LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER NW IL/SW WI WILL DRIFT EWD TOWARD
INDIANA AND LOWER MI THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL IN PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL COLD
POOL...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD EWD
SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARD NW INDIANA...AND PERHAPS SW
LOWER MI IF SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS IN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK ATTM.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 06/03/2007
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