SWODY1
SPC AC 051643
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NE GULF
COAST INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
..NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NJ/ERN NY
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER ERN PA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DESTABILIZING GRADUALLY IN ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG APPEAR LIKELY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
..LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY...
THE S TX MCS IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE...WITH THE MORE INTENSE NEW
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF WHERE THE MCS
OUTFLOW INTERSECTS THE PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY FROM S OF PSX INTO SRN
LA. MEANWHILE THE OUTFLOW SHOULD SPREAD SWD ACROSS DEEP S TX THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFT ALONG THE MODIFYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE NEW STORMS AS SURFACE HEATING WEAKENS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER DEEP S TX THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE
OUTFLOW COULD SURGE SWD FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN
MEXICO. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR STILL PRESENT S OF THE OUTFLOW.
..LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
IA TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS IL THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 58-62 F/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM NRN KY/SRN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL. WIDELY
SCATTERED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM IL INTO KY...AND SOME CONVECTION COULD ALSO PERSIST
OVER NRN KY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TAIL END OF A LEAD TROUGH MOVING
OVER INDIANA/OH. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATE SPEED
SPEED...IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY...COULD SUPPORT A
FEW STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THIS AFTERNOON.
..N FL/S GA INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER N FL/S GA INVOF A DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OTHER STORM SCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE RICHER MOISTURE/STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WEAKER INSTABILITY EXTENDS TO THE NE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN CONJUCTION WITH STRONG
SURFACE HEATING/MIXING...AND THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD FROM THE PAC COAST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE MID LEVEL OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. STILL...CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS MT/WY WILL INDUCE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NWD TRANSPORT OF THE RESIDUAL 55-60 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS.
THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH MID LEVEL WNWLY FLOW ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SELY
FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL COINCIDE THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN PROXIMITY
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE RETREATING NWD ACROSS KS/CO/NEB.
.THOMPSON/BRIGHT.. 06/05/2007
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