SWODY1
SPC AC 102000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...
..EXTREME NERN TX...OK...AR AND SRN MO...
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE MO-AR BORDER NWWD
THROUGH ERN KS. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS AR AND OK.
ATMOSPHERE OVER CNTRL AND ERN OK THROUGH WRN AND NRN AR REMAINS VERY
UNSTABLE. SURFACE HEATING...DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. WV
IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
THROUGH KS AND OK ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. AN MCV WAS
INDICATED OVER ERN MO. BELT 30 TO 40 KT WSWLY FLOW IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS IS RESULTING IN 40 TO 45 KT DEEP SHEAR N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS MO WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO ELY. WIND PROFILES
ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELL
STORMS...BUT 30 TO 35 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS
TO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.
ERN KS THROUGH MO HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND
ARE LOCATED ON THE COOL SIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUD ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME RECOVERY IN THIS
REGION AND CONCERN IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STRONGER N OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.
..CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING WITHIN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION REGIME PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND NEW SURFACE
BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM ERN SD INTO
SWRN MN. THIS REGION IS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN
NORTH OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL SD
SEWD THROUGH NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG EXIST ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. LATEST VWP FROM SIOUX FALL SD
SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 KT...SUPPORTIVE
OF MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS...BUT SOME STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP MID
LEVEL ROTATION. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN CO
THROUGH WRN NEB WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD NEWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB INTO CNTRL SD.
..SC...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1083.
..FL...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1084.
.DIAL.. 06/10/2007
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