SWODY1
SPC AC 271958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007
VALID 272000Z - 281200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
AND NEW ENGLAND...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE WY AND ERN
CO...
..NRN APPALACHIANS/NEW ENGLAND/OH VALLEY...
A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN NY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH SFC HEATING IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN PA EXTENDING NEWD INTO NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING IN MAINE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST. AS THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED. THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS
THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS ME...VT AND NH. THIS AREA IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP FROM NERN NY
EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN ME SUGGESTING AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ACROSS NY AND PA...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. AN AXIS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
LOCATED OVER WRN NY WHERE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
EXIST ACROSS ERN NY AND ERN PA WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE.
FURTHER WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OH
VALLEY...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE THE STRONGEST IN LOWER MI AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE SWD ACROSS IND AND OH. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE THE STRONGER CELLS
MAY BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..SE WY/ERN CO...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL CO AND SRN WY. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
MOVING EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SE WY AND ECNTRL CO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND/OR
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
.BROYLES.. 06/27/2007
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