SWODY2
SPC AC 011727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
OZARKS NEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW VCNTY SD WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM
ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRTLKS REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS BUILDS NWD.
MEANWHILE...WAVE OVER THE GULF BASIN WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES BY EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW NEAR KMSP AT 12Z
SATURDAY WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD UPR MI SATURDAY NIGHT. TRAILING
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST... MID-MS VLY AND
SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.
..SRN PLAINS...
REMNANT MCS/S WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS
OF N TX WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPLAYING S AND W. A RATHER BROAD
SLGT RISK SEEMS PRUDENT AS DETAILS ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IS ENTIRELY
UNCERTAIN. IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY...WDLY SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG ERN EXTENTS OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES INTO
ERN...NCNTRL...CNTRL TX DURING PEAK HEATING IF CINH CAN BE ERASED.
FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HOT
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/PLAINS OF NM AND THE WRN PNHDL/PLAINS OF TX LATE
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG
HEATING. MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /ESELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
NWLY FLOW ALOFT/ WILL BOOST SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO AN MCS OR TWO AS IT MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE TX S PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE.
..MID-UPR MS VLYS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF CONFLUENCE AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL EXIST
ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS NEWD INTO THE
UPR MS VLY SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE TSTM CORRIDOR MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF IL SWWD INTO MO EARLY SATURDAY AFTN WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATS AMIDST A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
REMAIN QUITE STEEP AND AS THE LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD
ASSOCD WITH THE EJECTING UPR LOW...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
THOUGH STRONGER BELT OF FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY WEST OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR...DEEP SWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR BANDS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS THAT
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO.
A SEPARATE AREA OF LOWER VALUE SVR PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST BENEATH
THE COLD CORE UPR LOW OVER PARTS OF SRN MN...WRN WI AND NRN IA
SATURDAY AFTN. HERE...LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
LEFT-EXIT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE UPR LOW. ISOLD STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
..ERN NY INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE NRN STREAM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WDLY
SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/BOUNDARIES COINCIDENT WITH THE HEATING CYCLE SATURDAY AFTN.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST WITHIN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AT
LEAST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. DIURNAL COOLING
WILL MARK THE END OF THE SVR THREATS SATURDAY EVE.
..FL...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE EJECTING WAVE
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. EVIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE SFC LOW WILL
TRACK VCNTY CNTRL FL ALONG A RETURNING FRONT. AIR MASS S OF THIS
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAP INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH GREATER
BUOYANCY VALUES AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS ON SATURDAY.
LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL BE QUITE PRONOUNCED...ESPECIALLY VCNTY THE
LOW TRACK AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS SUCH...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SUITE PRECLUDES A
CATEGORICAL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SLGT RISK.
.RACY.. 06/01/2007
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