SWODY2
SPC AC 041742
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2007
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN U.S....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT INTO NERN
WY....
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO PARTS OF WRN
KS SWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES....
..SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NERN U.S. AS CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES SEWD FROM
VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION INTO THE NRN PLATEAU. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
..PARTS OF ERN NY INTO WRN MAINE...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ADVANCE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EWD FROM CENTRAL
NY STATE...CENTRAL PA AND THE CENTRAL DELMARVA EWD INTO THE CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND AREA BETWEEN 05/18Z AND 06/00Z. THE MODELS ALSO
INDICATE STRONG THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S FROM ERN NY STATE INTO ME DURING
THE AFTN AND EVENING. THIS INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH PROJECTIONS FOR MUCAPE BEING AROUND 1500
J/KG OVER PARTS OF ERN NY/WRN MA...AND LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6.
IN ADDITION...ANALYSIS OF NAM POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
THAT SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL BE JUST ABOVE 7.5C/KM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING.
THUS...LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LAPSE
RATES AND THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30 KT...WOULD EXPECT
THAT THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
..NRN ROCKIES OF CENTRAL MT INT NERN WY...
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL ID INTO THE WRN HALF OF MT SWWD THRU NRN UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING CYCLONICALLY FROM NWRN CA THRU SRN NV INTO
NERN UT TUESDAY EVENING PLACING AN AREA FROM SERN ID INTO S CENTRAL
MT UNDERNEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW/FAVORABLE EXIT REGION. IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...LOW LEVEL JET IS PROJECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL ENHANCE SELY FLOW/LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ACROSS THIS REGION.
MODELS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL MT
LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. THUS...WILL ANTICIPATE
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER S CENTRAL MT...POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO SERN ID...WHERE UVVS WILL BECOME ENHANCED WITHIN
MOIST UNABLE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERNEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW. MODEL HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
/40-45 KT/ FOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO S CENTRAL KS/NWRN OK...
GIVEN THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN PLATEAU
REGION TAKING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DEVELOP STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NWD OVER
THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. THIS JET IS
FORECAST TO BE 50-60 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FROM NWRN TX INTO S
CENTRAL NEB INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER NERN AND E
CENTRAL CO BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DENVER CYCLONE. MUCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 2000-2200 J/KG OVER ERN CO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8.5C/KM.
THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO SPELL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON FORMING INTO
MCS ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL MOVE EWD/SEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. MODEL HODOGRAPHS
ACROSS ERN CO INDICATES FAVORABLE PROFILES WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND
45 KT AND 0-3KM HELICITY BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2 SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS INITIALLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER ERN CO...BUT MORE LIKELY LARGE HAIL AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.
..GULF COAST STATES...
OLD QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER AREAS FROM SRN
GA WWD INTO SERN TX DURING THE PERIOD. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PEAK PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AIR MASS WILL AGAIN BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME HAIL AND WET
MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
.MCCARTHY.. 06/04/2007
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