SWODY2
SPC AC 101730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SC AND GA...
..SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS MONDAY. UPPER
TROUGH NOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NEWD INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE
BAJA COAST IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE SWRN U.S. BY LATE MONDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OFF THE NERN U.S. COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING EWD TOWARD MID MS VALLEY REGION WILL SHIFT SEWD ALONG NERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE INTO THE SERN STATES.
..NRN PLAINS AREA...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE NEWD ALONG
ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MT EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. EARLY MONDAY THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN ND SWWD
THROUGH WY. A DRYLINE OR LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
RESIDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET
BENEATH EML. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG POSSIBLE
OVER THE DAKOTAS.
SOME ELEVATED STORMS MAY OCCUR EARLY MONDAY FROM PARTS OF THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ON NOSE OF SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE
BASED STORMS UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
UPPER IMPULSES TO EJECT NEWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN HIGH PLAINS. HEATING AND MOISTENING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY NEWD
EJECTING IMPULSES MAY WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LINGER IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE STRONGER
DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NRN WY AND SRN MT AND SHIFT NEWD TROUGH THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN SD
THROUGH ERN WY IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME ALONG AND W OF LEE
TROUGH AND INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ALONG AND W OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
BY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF SD AND ND WHERE AN
INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND
LIFT.
..GA AND SC...
BELT OF 35 TO 40 KT MID-UPPER FLOW WILL EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE SERN
U.S. ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT BETWEEN S CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND
UPPER LOW OFF THE NERN U.S. COAST AS WELL AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP
SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG MOIST
AXIS OVER PARTS OF GA AND SC AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES AND SPREAD SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND STORMS WITH MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
.DIAL.. 06/10/2007
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