SWODY2
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL OK SWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE SRN FL PENINSULA...
..SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD
CYCLONIC TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...AND A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. STRONGER
BELT OF MID LEVEL WLYS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE PRIMARILY
ACROSS SRN CANADA...THOUGH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PUNCH EWD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE FAR NRN PLAINS.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN ROTATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER NEW ENGLAND...SWWD DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR SYSTEM ON TUESDAY RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND DESPITE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM HEATING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG...THE CYCLONIC FLOW...-12 TO -14C MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND.
..CENTRAL OK SWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK UPPER LOW
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...
THOUGH ADDITIONAL HEATING/GREATER INSTABILITY WILL YIELD MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AREAS THAT CAN HEAT WELL INTO THE 80S SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. A COMPACT BAND OF
30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO EXTEND ON THE SRN SIDE OF
THE LOW...FROM ERN NM EWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX...RESULTING IN 20-30 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FAVOR A FEW SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE
STRONGER STORMS/UPDRAFTS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND SUNSET.
..SRN FLORIDA...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUPPORTING LOWER 70
DEWPOINTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND 30-35 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG
STORMS...WITH WIND THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
..ERN MT/WRN ND/NWRN SD...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER. IF SURFACE BASED
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ATTM...STORM
DEVELOPMENT/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE
BORDER...SO ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST.
.IMY.. 06/13/2007
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