SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011845
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-011945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011845Z - 011945Z
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER
CORRIDOR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG
AND JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT INITIALLY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACES THE
MAIN WEST TO EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY FROM TCC TO 25
S AMA TO FSI...WITH MORE SUBTLE GRAVITY WAVES/CONFLUENT BANDS
LOCATED FARTHER S. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. THUS...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
WINDS /20 TO 30 KTS AT 6 KM PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS/...FAVORABLE
VEERING WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS.
THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE-HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 12Z MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S PLAINS
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS LIKELY REMAINING TIED INVOF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES...PRIOR TO THE OUTFLOW/COLD POOL
UNDERCUTTING STORMS.
.GRAMS.. 06/01/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
34999838 34259780 33519797 33089889 33060054 33280214
33610353 34370401 35130384 35460291 35310108 35249987
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