SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021714
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-021815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...VT...NH AND MA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021714Z - 021815Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN
NY...VT...NH AND MA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS
SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD
ACROSS FAR SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN NH AND NRN VT. SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND SBCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN
IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERNING THE SEVERE
THREAT...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT WITHIN
100 STATUE MILES OF THE SRN SIDE OF SFC BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS
SHOW 20 KT OF WLY FLOW AT 1-2 KM AGL WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON.
.BROYLES.. 06/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
43957105 44417212 44967466 44427572 43717588 43377530
43087453 42917387 42727321 42477216 42497160 43167093
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