MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0966

ACUS11 KWNS 021811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021811
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-021945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...NRN IA...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021811Z - 021945Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MN..WRN WI AND NRN
IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW MN WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN IA. EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. THE RUC
ANALYZES A POCKET OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER SE MN AND NRN IA WITH
SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS INSTABILITY MAX THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
SPREADING NEWD INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR ERN SD AND A BAND OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE MN AND WRN
WI. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EVIDENT ON WSR-88D VWPS WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED.

.BROYLES.. 06/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

42839236 42749391 43549454 44549451 45229521 45769446
45879387 45619301 45279217 45019142 44569088 43879086
43289129

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.