MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0999

ACUS11 KWNS 041751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041751
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-041945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...FAR SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041751Z - 041945Z

TSTM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF SRN CO/NRN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY PROBABLE ACROSS SRN NM.
CONTINUED MODERATE NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN SPREADING TSTMS
S/SEWD ALONG THE PLAINS AND MESAS OF SERN CO/ERN NM. DESPITE MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH.

VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS CBS/CU GROWING ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FROM
NEAR LVS NWD THROUGH MUCH OF CNTRL CO. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE
ALREADY MIXED INTO THE 40S ALONG THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...THIS IS GENERALLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS ERN
NM...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVER SERN CO. NEVERTHELESS...ABUNDANT
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS AND
RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THE
DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. LATEST
REGIONAL PROFILERS GENERALLY INDICATE SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 TO
25 KTS ATTM. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /AS
EVIDENCED BY AZTEC NM PROFILER/...MAY RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 30 KTS. IF THIS OCCUR...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
INITIALLY.

.GRAMS.. 06/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

33270619 34480585 35500531 36790503 37530498 38040490
38280451 37820360 37240295 36000296 34550301 33340324
32420428 32240531 32470601

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